Fig. 1Kaplan-Meier curves for the cumulative prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus for the quartile of homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) values. (A) In the normal glucose tolerance group. (B) In the pre-diabetic group. (C) In the non-diabetic group. In each figure, the 1Q group is displayed in gray, the 2Q group is displayed in blue, the 3Q group in black, and the highest quartile in red. IR, insulin resistance.
Table 1Baseline characteristics of the study participants
Characteristic |
NGT groupa (n=72,915) |
Pre-diabetes groupb (n=31,779) |
Non-diabetic groupc (n=104,694) |
P valued
|
Age at first visit, yr |
37.9±6.8 |
41.2±8.3 |
38.9±7.4 |
<0.001 |
BMI, kg/m2
|
23±2.9 |
24.2±3.1 |
23.4±3.0 |
<0.001 |
Waist circumference, cm |
78.6±9.4 |
82.4±9.3 |
79.8±9.5 |
<0.001 |
Female sex, % |
29,676 (40.7) |
10,996 (34.6) |
40,672 (38.8) |
<0.001 |
Family history of DM, % |
9,625 (13.2) |
5,402 (17.0) |
15,027 (14.4) |
<0.001 |
Current smoker, % |
18,885 (25.9) |
8,517 (26.8) |
27,402 (26.2) |
0.002 |
Progression to DM, % |
313 (0.4) |
1,626 (5.1) |
1,939 (1.9) |
<0.001 |
AST, IU/L |
23.7±7.0 |
24.9±8.0 |
23.8±7.3 |
<0.001 |
ALT, IU/L |
23.8±13.2 |
27.6±15.7 |
25.0±14.1 |
<0.001 |
Serum creatinine, mg/dL |
1.01±0.15 |
1.04±0.15 |
1.02±0.15 |
<0.001 |
eGFR, mL/min |
79.4±9.1 |
77.3±9.1 |
78.8±9.2 |
<0.001 |
SBP, mm Hg |
111.5±13.0 |
116.2±14.7 |
112.9±13.7 |
<0.001 |
HbA1c, % |
5.26±0.23 |
5.61±0.32 |
5.37±0.30 |
<0.001 |
Total cholesterol, mg/dL |
186.6±31.7 |
196.3±33.4 |
189.6±32.5 |
<0.001 |
Triglyceride, mg/dL |
115.3±73.3 |
140.7±92.3 |
123.0±80.4 |
<0.001 |
LDL-C, mg/dL |
106.6±27.1 |
114.1±28.5 |
108.9±27.7 |
<0.001 |
HDL-C, mg/dL |
54.5±12.3 |
52.4±11.7 |
53.9±12.2 |
<0.001 |
Non-HDL-C, mg/dL |
132.1±32.1 |
143.9±33.4 |
135.7±32.9 |
<0.001 |
HOMA1-IR |
1.91±0.72 |
2.39±0.97 |
2.06±0.84 |
<0.001 |
HOMA1-β |
120.42±70.08 |
93.80±39.82 |
112.34±63.65 |
<0.001 |
HOMA2-IR |
1.27±0.45 |
1.46±0.55 |
1.33±0.49 |
<0.001 |
HOMA2-β |
100.09±35.51 |
93.14±31.67 |
97.98±34.54 |
<0.001 |
Table 2Univariate Cox proportional hazards analysis model of HOMA values for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus
Variable |
NGT group |
Pre-diabetes group |
All participants (non-diabetic group) |
HR (95% CI)a
|
P value |
HR (95% CI)a
|
P value |
HR (95% CI)a
|
P value |
HOMA1-IR |
1.13 (1.1–1.17) |
<0.001 |
1.42 (1.38–1.46) |
<0.001 |
1.21 (1.20–1.22) |
<0.001 |
1/HOMA1-β |
0.99 (0.87–1.14) |
0.922 |
1.13 (1.11–1.15) |
<0.001 |
1.12 (1.11–1.13) |
<0.001 |
HOMA2-IR |
1.18 (1.13–1.23) |
<0.001 |
1.33 (1.29–1.38) |
<0.001 |
1.25 (1.23–1.26) |
<0.001 |
1/HOMA2-β |
0.95 (0.83–1.08) |
0.418 |
1.26 (1.23–1.29) |
<0.001 |
1.26 (1.25–1.28) |
<0.001 |
Table 3Multivariatea Cox proportional hazards analysis model of HOMA values for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus
Variable |
NGT group |
Pre-diabetes group |
All participants (non-diabetic group) |
HR (95% CI)b
|
P value |
HR (95% CI)b
|
P value |
HR (95% CI)b
|
P value |
HOMA1-IR |
1.09 (1.04–1.14) |
<0.001 |
1.23 (1.19–1.28) |
<0.001 |
1.14 (1.12–1.15) |
<0.001 |
1/HOMA1-β |
1.07 (0.97–1.17) |
0.177 |
1.14 (1.12–1.16) |
<0.001 |
1.13 (1.11–1.14) |
<0.001 |
HOMA2-IR |
1.11 (1.04–1.19) |
0.001 |
1.13 (1.08–1.18) |
<0.001 |
1.12 (1.09–1.15) |
<0.001 |
1/HOMA2-β |
1.05 (0.93–1.20) |
0.428 |
1.29 (1.26–1.31) |
<0.001 |
1.27 (1.25–1.29) |
<0.001 |