

, Haofeng Zhou1,2*
, Chaofan Wang3*
, Qian He2,4, Ping Wu5, Wenjing Wu6, Hongjiang Wu7,8, Alice P.S. Kong7,8, Huanyi Cao9


1Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
2Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
3Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Diabetology, Guangzhou, China
4Department of Cardiology, Fuwai Shenzhen Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shenzhen, China
5Department of Hematology, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital, Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences, Guangzhou, China
6Department of Nephrology, Hubei Provincial Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Hubei University of Chinese Medicine, Wuhan, China
7Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
8Hong Kong Institute of Diabetes and Obesity, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
9Department of Endocrinology, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
Department of Endocrinology, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China E-mail: caohuanyi@link.cuhk.edu.hk
Department of Endocrinology, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China E-mail: guanhaixia@gdph.org.cn
Department of Cardiology, Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital (Guangdong Academy of Medical Sciences), Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China E-mail: cheng831011@sina.com Copyright © 2026 Korean Diabetes Association
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
CONFLICTS OF INTEREST
No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
Conception or design: H.C., H.G., Y.C.
Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: all authors.
Drafting the work or revising: A.X., H.Z., Y.C.
Final approval of the manuscript: all authors.
FUNDING
The study was financially supported by the grants from National Natural Science Foundation of China (82270333; 81600260; 82300956, 82200148, and 82304910), the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China (2024A1515013067; 20 22A1515012358), Guangzhou Science and Technology Program (2023A04J1087, 2024B03J1344), the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province, China (Grant No. 2024AFB925), Highlevel Talents Introduction Plan of Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital (KY012023007), the Guangdong Provincial People’s Hospital Supporting Fund for Talent Program (No. KJ012020629), Clinical Research Special Fund of Guangdong Medical Association (2024HY-A6002), and National Science and Technology Innovation Major Project-Research Project on Prevention and Treatment of Cancer, Cardiovascular, Respiratory and Metabolic Diseases (2023ZD0504202; 2023ZD0504204).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The author expresses gratitude to the UK Biobank participants for their involvement and contributions to the research. This study utilized resources from the UK Biobank under application number 644424520.
Model 1 was unadjusted; Model 2 was adjusted for age (continuous), sex (male or female), ethnicity (white or others), education attainment (college/university degree or other), and Townsend deprivation index (continuous), smoking status (never, former, or current), daily alcohol intake (continuous), healthy diet score (continuous), physical activity level (continuous), and body mass index (continuous); Model 3 was further adjusted for diabetes duration (<1, 1–4, 5–9, ≥10 years), glycosylated hemoglobin (<53, ≥53 mmol/mol), diabetes medication use (none, only oral medication, only insulin, or insulin and oral medication), lipid-lowering treatment (yes or no), antihypertensive medication treatment (yes or no), and use of aspirin (yes or no).
CRF, cardiorespiratory fitness; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; MET, metabolic equivalent of task.
Model 1 was unadjusted; Model 2 was adjusted for age (continuous), sex (male or female), ethnicity (white or others), education attainment (college/university degree or other), and Townsend deprivation index (continuous), smoking status (never, former, or current), daily alcohol intake (continuous), healthy diet score (continuous), physical activity level (continuous), body mass index (continuous), diabetes duration (<1, 1–4, 5–9, ≥10 years), glycosylated hemoglobin (<53, ≥53 mmol/mol), diabetes medication use (none, only oral medication, only insulin, or insulin and oral medication), lipid-lowering treatment (yes or no), antihypertensive medication treatment (yes or no), and use of aspirin (yes or no).
CRF, cardiorespiratory fitness; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
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| Variable | Overall | Low CRF | Moderate CRF | High CRF | P value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of participants | 3,102 | 1,335 | 1,237 | 530 | |
| Age, yr | 59.20±7.54 | 58.98±7.51 | 59.57±7.42 | 58.88±7.85 | 0.082 |
| Male sex | 1,910 (61.6) | 790 (59.2) | 785 (63.5) | 335 (63.2) | 0.058 |
| White ethnicity | 2,547 (82.1) | 1,107 (82.9) | 998 (80.7) | 442 (83.4) | 0.232 |
| College or university degree | 939 (30.3) | 368 (27.6) | 374 (30.2) | 197 (37.2) | 0.002 |
| Townsend deprivation index | –0.53±3.21 | –0.33±3.19 | –0.53±3.25 | –1.00±3.09 | <0.001 |
| Smoking | 0.332 | ||||
| Never | 1,549 (49.9) | 662 (49.6) | 620 (50.1) | 267 (50.4) | |
| Former | 1,256 (40.5) | 562 (42.1) | 485 (39.2) | 209 (39.4) | |
| Current | 297 (9.6) | 111 (8.3) | 132 (10.7) | 54 (10.2) | |
| BMI, kg/m2 | 30.36±5.22 | 33.34±5.13 | 29.08±3.91 | 25.84±3.28 | <0.001 |
| Alcohol intake, median, g/day | 6.32 | 4.40 | 7.20 | 10.22 | <0.001 |
| Healthy diet score | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.00 | <0.001 |
| Physical activity, MET-hr/wk | 25.55 | 22.96 | 26.93 | 33.07 | <0.001 |
| Diabetes duration, yr | 0.363 | ||||
| <1 | 439 (14.2) | 179 (13.4) | 185 (15.0) | 75 (14.2) | |
| 1–4 | 1,193 (38.5) | 502 (37.6) | 475 (38.4) | 216 (40.8) | |
| 5–9 | 838 (27.0) | 382 (28.6) | 332 (26.8) | 124 (23.4) | |
| ≥10 | 632 (20.4) | 272 (20.4) | 245 (19.8) | 115 (21.7) | |
| Diabetes medication use | <0.001 | ||||
| None | 1,312 (42.3) | 515 (38.6) | 523 (42.3) | 274 (51.7) | |
| Only oral medication | 1,433 (46.2) | 692 (51.8) | 574 (46.4) | 167 (31.5) | |
| Only insulin | 200 (6.4) | 48 (3.6) | 79 (6.4) | 73 (13.8) | |
| Oral medication and insulin | 157 (5.1) | 80 (6.0) | 61 (4.9) | 16 (3.0) | |
| HbA1c, mmol/mol | <0.001 | ||||
| <53.0 | 2,026 (65.3) | 785 (58.8) | 852 (68.9) | 389 (73.4) | |
| ≥53.0 | 1,076 (34.7) | 550 (41.2) | 385 (31.1) | 141 (26.6) | |
| Antihypertensive medication use | 1,698 (54.7) | 844 (63.2) | 634 (51.3) | 220 (41.5) | <0.001 |
| Lipid-lowering medication | 1,966 (63.4) | 871 (65.2) | 792 (64.0) | 303 (57.2) | 0.004 |
| Aspirin use | 1,062 (34.2) | 486 (36.4) | 418 (33.8) | 158 (29.8) | 0.023 |
| CRF | Incidence/person-yr | Model 1 |
Model 2 |
Model 3 |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | ||
| Diabetic nephropathy | |||||||
| Low CRF | 184/18,413 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
| Moderate CRF | 117/17,438 | 0.67 (0.53–0.84) | <0.001 | 0.73 (0.57–0.93) | 0.011 | 0.78 (0.61–0.99) | 0.044 |
| High CRF | 30/7,596 | 0.39 (0.27–0.58) | <0.001 | 0.49 (0.32–0.75) | 0.001 | 0.55 (0.36–0.85) | 0.006 |
| Per MET increase | 0.86 (0.81–0.91) | <0.001 | 0.87 (0.79–0.94) | 0.001 | 0.89 (0.81–0.98) | 0.015 | |
| Diabetic retinopathy | |||||||
| Low CRF | 125/18,844 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
| Moderate CRF | 103/17,529 | 0.86 (0.66–1.11) | 0.241 | 0.78 (0.59–1.05) | 0.097 | 0.84 (0.63–1.13) | 0.273 |
| High CRF | 40/7,549 | 0.79 (0.55–1.12) | 0.191 | 0.67 (0.44–1.01) | 0.057 | 0.77 (0.50–1.16) | 0.221 |
| Per MET increase | 0.94 (0.87–1.01) | 0.104 | 0.90 (0.81–1.01) | 0.068 | 0.94 (0.85–1.03) | 0.236 | |
| Diabetic neuropathy | |||||||
| Low CRF | 53/17,758 | Reference | Reference | Reference | |||
| Moderate CRF | 27/16,586 | 0.79 (0.44–1.11) | 0.131 | 0.66 (0.41–1.09) | 0.108 | 0.74 (0.44–1.24) | 0.254 |
| High CRF | 8/7,152 | 0.70 (0.37–1.31) | 0.266 | 0.63 (0.31–1.29) | 0.211 | 0.72 (0.34–1.53) | 0.397 |
| Per MET increase | 0.91 (0.76–1.09) | 0.308 | 0.90 (0.71–1.13) | 0.370 | 0.94 (0.75–1.19) | 0.432 | |
| Group | Incidence/person-yr | Model 1 |
Model 2 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | P value | HR (95% CI) | P value | ||
| Moderate/high CRF+low risk | 68/17,454 | Reference | Reference | ||
| Low CRF+low risk | 101/13,352 | 1.95 (1.43–2.65) | <0.001 | 1.55 (1.12–2.14) | 0.008 |
| Moderate/high CRF+high risk | 79/7,581 | 2.69 (1.95–3.72) | <0.001 | 1.73 (1.22–2.46) | 0.002 |
| low CRF+high risk | 83/5,062 | 4.26 (3.09–5.87) | <0.001 | 2.03 (1.42–2.89) | <0.001 |
Values are presented as mean±standard deviation or number (%). CRF, cardiorespiratory fitness; BMI, body mass index; MET, metabolic equivalent of task; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin.
Model 1 was unadjusted; Model 2 was adjusted for age (continuous), sex (male or female), ethnicity (white or others), education attainment (college/university degree or other), and Townsend deprivation index (continuous), smoking status (never, former, or current), daily alcohol intake (continuous), healthy diet score (continuous), physical activity level (continuous), and body mass index (continuous); Model 3 was further adjusted for diabetes duration (<1, 1–4, 5–9, ≥10 years), glycosylated hemoglobin (<53, ≥53 mmol/mol), diabetes medication use (none, only oral medication, only insulin, or insulin and oral medication), lipid-lowering treatment (yes or no), antihypertensive medication treatment (yes or no), and use of aspirin (yes or no). CRF, cardiorespiratory fitness; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; MET, metabolic equivalent of task.
Model 1 was unadjusted; Model 2 was adjusted for age (continuous), sex (male or female), ethnicity (white or others), education attainment (college/university degree or other), and Townsend deprivation index (continuous), smoking status (never, former, or current), daily alcohol intake (continuous), healthy diet score (continuous), physical activity level (continuous), body mass index (continuous), diabetes duration (<1, 1–4, 5–9, ≥10 years), glycosylated hemoglobin (<53, ≥53 mmol/mol), diabetes medication use (none, only oral medication, only insulin, or insulin and oral medication), lipid-lowering treatment (yes or no), antihypertensive medication treatment (yes or no), and use of aspirin (yes or no). CRF, cardiorespiratory fitness; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
