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Original Article
Lifestyle and Behavioral Interventions Risk Determinants of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with Severe Obesity and Prediction Model for Diabetes Remission after Bariatric Metabolic Surgery
Zilong Wu1,2*orcid, Yuxia Li3*orcid, Dehui Wang1,2*orcid, Bing Wu1,2, Kaisheng Yuan1,2, Yun Liu4, Hao Zhu4, Sijie Chen5, Wah Yang1,2, Ruixiang Hu1,2orcidcorresp_icon, Cunchuan Wang1,2orcidcorresp_icon
Diabetes & Metabolism Journal 2026;50(2):368-384.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2025.0337
Published online: November 25, 2025
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1Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery/Bariatric Surgery Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China

2The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint University Laboratory of Metabolic and Molecular Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China

3Department of Intensive Care Unit, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Guangzhou, China

4School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China

5Department of Nursing, Chengdu Fifth People’s Hospital, Chengdu, China

corresp_icon Corresponding authors: Ruixiang Hu orcid Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery/Bariatric Surgery Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, No. 613, Huangpu Avenue West, Guangzhou, China E-mail: huruixiang123@jnu.edu.cn
Cunchuan Wang orcid Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery/Bariatric Surgery Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, No. 613, Huangpu Avenue West, Guangzhou, China E-mail: twcc@jnu.edu.cn
*Zilong Wu, Yuxia Li, and Dehui Wang contributed equally to this study as first authors.
• Received: April 15, 2025   • Accepted: September 8, 2025

Copyright © 2026 Korean Diabetes Association

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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  • Background
    Bariatric metabolic surgery (BMS) has been established as an effective intervention for obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, systematic research addressing the onset of diabetes and post-surgical remission in severely obese populations remains scarce. This study aims to identify risk factors for T2DM in populations with severe obesity undergoing BMS and develop and validate a prediction model for the primary outcome of diabetes remission (DR) 1 year after BMS. This research provides a precise tool for managing T2DM in populations with severe obesity.
  • Methods
    This research utilizes the China Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Database, retrospectively analyzing 3,670 severely obese populations who underwent BMS between January 2014 and January 2024. Differential analysis identified risk factors for T2DM onset, while univariate and multivariate regression analyses identified independent risk factors for DR post-surgery. A prediction model for DR was developed and internally validated.
  • Results
    Factors associated with T2DM onset in severely obese populations included family history of diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels, and fasting plasma glucose. Independent factors influencing DR postsurgery included diabetes duration, surgical method, HbA1c, and insulin requirement. Subsequent model validation confirmed stable performance metrics (area under the curve values training, 0.71; validation, 0.72).
  • Conclusion
    This study identifies risk factors for T2DM onset and a prediction model for DR following BMS in the Chinese severely obese population. It provides a more precise risk assessment tool for patients with severe obesity and T2DM, and lays the groundwork for future multicenter studies and international collaborations.
• In severe obesity, T2DM risks include family history, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia.
• Diabetes remission is higher after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass than sleeve gastrectomy.
• A new nomogram predicts diabetes remission after surgery with acceptable accuracy.
• Longer diabetes duration and insulin use lower postoperative remission rates.
Obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have emerged as significant global public health concerns, affecting approximately 9.3% of the adult population worldwide [1]. Excessive fat accumulation leads to insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction, while T2DM exacerbates appetite and energy metabolism imbalances, further worsening obesity [2]. Notably, over 53.1% of T2DM cases are directly associated with an increase in body mass index (BMI), particularly among individuals with severe obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m² according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) [3], where the prevalence of T2DM is 43%, in contrast, the prevalence among individuals with normal weight is approximately 8% [4,5]. Compared to class I or II obesity, individuals with severe obesity exhibit a heightened risk of metabolic diseases that further escalates with increasing BMI [6]. This association can be attributed to the fact that a BMI of 40 kg/m² or higher typically signifies more severe metabolic dysfunction, leading to a range of metabolic abnormalities, such as hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, and dyslipidemia, as well as multi-organ involvement, including cardiovascular diseases. Consequently, this necessitates heightened attention and proactive intervention [7]. Recently, the rising prevalence of obesity and T2DM has become a growing concern, especially in rapidly developing countries like China. In China, 4% of adults are affected by severe obesity, and the prevalence of T2DM has exceeded 140 million, accounting for 23% of the global T2DM population [4,8]. As these health issues intensify, the limitations of traditional treatment methods are becoming increasingly apparent, making bariatric metabolic surgery (BMS) an increasingly recognized treatment option for severe obesity with T2DM.
BMS has been demonstrated to possess long-term and sustained efficacy in the treatment of severe obesity combined with T2DM. In 2009, the American Diabetes Association recognized BMS as a recommended treatment for populations with obesity and T2DM [9]. Research in the United States has shown that sleeve gastrectomy (SG) and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) result in weight loss rates of 22.8% and 24.1%, and T2DM remission rates of 55.9% and 59.2%, respectively, 1-year post-surgery [10]. Notably, for obese T2DM populations with a BMI ≥40 kg/m² who have not achieved satisfactory results with non-surgical treatments, BMS should be prioritized as the treatment of choice [11].
The efficacy of BMS in controlling severe obesity combined with T2DM can be evaluated using prediction models based on diabetes remission (DR). Nomograms, as integrated risk prediction tools, are widely used not only for cancer survival but also in assessing risks for non-cancer diseases. However, despite the existence of several models predicting the effects of BMS on DR, most studies focus on Western populations. Given that Asian populations tend to have more visceral obesity and higher T2DM prevalence, existing models have limited applicability in these populations [12,13]. Moreover, continuous studies on preoperative conditions and postoperative remission effects are scarce, and long-term follow-up research on the same group of patients is lacking. Most studies focus on the general obese population, with few specific studies targeting the severely obese group, which often faces more complex health issues [14].
To address these issues, this study utilizes a 10-year clinical dataset from the China Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Database (COMSD), which includes 51 variables related to T2DM. These variables encompass multiple dimensions such as lifestyle, clinical symptoms, medical history, comorbidities, blood test results, and family history. By analyzing the risk factors for T2DM in the severely obese population and evaluating the independent impact of BMS on DR in these populations, we provide a more comprehensive accurate risk assessment and prediction model for this group, offering important clinical insights into the onset and remission of T2DM.
Patient selection
COMSD encompassing 128 metabolic surgery centers across 64 cities in China [15]. This study focused on severely obese individuals who underwent BMS between January 2014 and January 2024, with follow-up data extending until January 2025. Inclusion criteria were: (1) aged 18 to 65 years; (2) BMI ≥40.0 kg/m²; (3) underwent only SG or RYGB; and (4) had complete preoperative and 1-year postoperative follow-up records. Exclusion criteria included: (1) prior BMS; (2) revision surgery within 1 year postoperatively; (3) severe organ dysfunction; (4) active malignancy; and (5) severe postoperative complications or infections. The decision regarding the type of BMS was made collaboratively by the surgeon and the patient. Initially, 15,127 individuals were screened, and after the selection process, 3,670 met the inclusion criteria. The study flowchart is presented in Fig. 1. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University (KY-2021-102). All participants provided written informed consent, in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki.
Study variables
Preoperative baseline characteristics were collected, including age, sex, height, weight, BMI, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, smoking history, alcohol consumption, family history of obesity, family history of diabetes, and surgical approach. Patient-reported symptoms and comorbidities were documented, encompassing hair loss, acid reflux, snoring, Helicobacter pylori infection, hypertension, T2DM, cardiovascular disease, fatty liver, sleep apnea syndrome, thyroid disorders, hyperlipidemia, hyperuricemia, gout, arthritis, and acanthosis nigricans. Preoperative biochemical profiles were analyzed, comprising glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), fasting plasma insulin (FPI), fasting C-peptide, total cholesterol, triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein, low-density lipoprotein, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, creatinine, albumin, free triiodothyronine, free thyroxine, and uric acid. T2DM-related parameters were further evaluated, including diabetes duration, hypoglycemic medication use, insulin requirement, insulin resistance assessed by the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), lipid accumulation product (LAP), and McAuley index.
Definitions of DR, T2DM-related factors and other comorbidities
DR was defined according to the 2022 consensus statement as HbA1c <6.5% (48 mmol/mol) measured at least 3 months after cessation of glucose-lowering pharmacotherapy [16]. Diagnostic Criteria for T2DM (based on any one of the following): FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L (126 mg/dL), 2-hour plasma glucose during 75 g oral glucose tolerance test ≥11.1 mmol/L (200 mg/dL), HbA1c ≥6.5% (using National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program [NGSP]-certified methods), FPG ≥11.1 mmol/L (200 mg/dL)+classic hyperglycemic symptoms [17]. According to clinical guidelines, a diagnosis of hypertension requires systolic blood pressure measurements ≥140 mm Hg and/or diastolic readings ≥90 mm Hg [18]. Hyperuricemia is defined as a serum uric acid concentration exceeding 7.0 mg/dL (420 μmol/L), gout diagnosis requires: recurrent arthritis attacks, tophi (ear/joint deposits), imaging showing joint damage/urate crystals [19]. Diagnosis of other comorbidities was based on guidelines or previous studies [20-24]. HOMA-IR was used to assess the degree of insulin resistance, with the formula: HOMA-IR=FPI×FPG/22.5, where FPI is in μU/mL and FPG in mmol/L. QUICKI is another method for evaluating insulin sensitivity, calculated as: QUICKI=1/[log(FPI)+log(FPG)], with FPI in mU/L and FPG in mg/dL. The LAP index reflects the accumulation of lipids in the body, calculated as: LAP (male)=(WC–65)×TG (mmol/L); LAP (female)=(WC–58)×TG (mmol/L). The McAuley index is also used to assess insulin sensitivity, calculated as: McAuley index=exp [2.63–0.28×ln(FPI)–0.31×ln(TG)], where FPI is in mU/L and TG in mmol/L [25].
Statistical analysis
Statistical analysis was conducted using SPSS software version 26.0 (IBM Co., Armonk, NY, USA) and R software version 4.1.2 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). Continuous variables that followed a non-normal distribution were analyzed using non-parametric methods (rank sum tests and Kruskal–Wallis tests), with results reported as median (interquartile range). Categorical data were assessed using chi-square tests, with results presented as number (%). Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression was employed to adjust for variables with P<0.05 in univariate logistic regression analyses. Data were randomly allocated to experimental and validation cohorts in a 7:3 ratio, and variables were compared. In the nomogram, variable weights are directly derived from the coefficients of multivariable logistic regression. The contribution of each predictor to DR is quantified by its adjusted OR. The regression coefficients (β) are transformed to a scale ranging from 0 to 100 using the following equation: Pointsi=(βi–βmin)/(βmax–βmin)×100. In this equation, βi represents the regression coefficient of a variable, while βmin and βmax denote the smallest and largest coefficients in the model, respectively. The total score is obtained by summing all points, which is then mapped to the bottom axis of the nomogram to determine the predicted probability of DR. The selected variables were utilized as predictors to develop a DR prediction model in the training cohort and validate it in the test cohort. The discriminative performance of the model was assessed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC). The relationship and consistency between observed outcomes and predicted probabilities were evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration curves, with discrepancies reflecting the model’s reliability. Lastly, decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to determine the model’s clinical utility and applicability.
Risk factors for T2DM in severely obese populations
From an initial cohort of 15,127 individuals undergoing BMS, 3,670 individuals were ultimately included in this study. Comprehensive comparisons of baseline characteristics, metabolic laboratory parameters, and obesity-related comorbidities were conducted between severely obese populations stratified by T2DM status (Table 1). The T2DM group (n=1,021, 27.8% of the cohort) exhibited significantly higher median WC (131 cm vs. 130 cm, P=0.006) and waist-to-hip ratio (1.03 vs. 1.03, P=0.009) compared to non-T2DM individuals, along with a greater prevalence of smoking (19.4% vs. 16.6%, P=0.043). T2DM patients demonstrated elevated rates of obesity-related comorbidities, including hypertension (64.6% vs. 48.3%, P<0.001), cardiovascular disease (2.4% vs. 1.2%, P=0.008), fatty liver (92.1% vs. 88.8%, P=0.004), sleep apnea syndrome (58.4% vs. 52.5%, P=0.001), hyperlipidemia (69.0% vs. 49.4%, P<0.001), and acanthosis nigricans (29.3% vs. 21.5%, P<0.001). Family history of diabetes was more prevalent in T2DM patients (37.0% vs. 10.0%, P<0.001), who also showed a higher preference for RYGB procedures (24.49% vs. 15.06%, P<0.001). Preoperative biochemical profiles revealed significantly higher median values in T2DM patients for HbA1c (7.10% vs. 5.70%, P<0.001), FPG (7.41 mmol/L vs. 5.49 mmol/L, P<0.001), FPI (27 mIU/L vs. 24 mIU/L, P=0.009), and TG (2.42 mmol/L vs. 1.76 mmol/L, P<0.001). No significant differences were observed in other baseline characteristics, laboratory indices, or comorbidities (P>0.05).
Risk factors for T2DM
To further elucidate the risk factors for T2DM in the severely obese population, we conducted univariate and multivariate regression analyses on 42 collected variables (Table 2). The results indicated that family history of diabetes was strongly associated with an increased risk of T2DM (adjusted OR=5.17; P<0.001). Additionally, hypertension (adjusted OR=1.89; P<0.001) and hyperlipidemia (adjusted OR=1.54; P<0.001) were identified as independent risk factors for T2DM. Moreover, HbA1c (adjusted OR=1.89; P<0.001), FPG (adjusted OR=1.23; P<0.001), and TG (adjusted OR=1.13; P<0.001) were significant factors associated with the occurrence of T2DM.
Characteristics of the training and validation cohorts for T2DM patients after BMS
We conducted a further analysis of 1,021 severely obese populations with T2DM. Populations were randomly assigned to a training cohort (714 cases) and a validation cohort (307 cases) in a 7:3 ratio. The median age of all patients was 28 years, with a median BMI of 44.0 kg/m². Male and female patients comprised 40.1% and 59.9% of the cohort, respectively. The majority of patients (75.5%) underwent SG as their primary surgical procedure. The cohort’s median HbA1c and FPG levels were 7.10% and 7.4 mmol/L, respectively. The training and validation cohorts demonstrated comparable baseline and clinical characteristics, with no statistically significant differences (P>0.05) (Supplementary Table 1).
Variable selection and nomogram development
In the training cohort, univariate regression analysis of 51 variables identified six statistically significant predictors (P<0.05). We performed multivariate logistic regression using DR after BMS as the dependent variable, with these six variables serving as independent predictors. At the 1-year follow-up post-BMS, RYGB (adjusted OR=1.88 vs. SG; P<0.001), Hyperlipidemia (adjusted OR=0.66; P=0.016), HbA1c (adjusted OR=0.80; P=0.001), diabetes duration (adjusted OR=0.90; P<0.001) and insulin requirement (adjusted OR=0.59; P=0.006) emerged as independent predictors of DR. Table 3 presents the complete results from both univariate and multivariate analyses. As shown in Supplementary Table 2, significant differences were observed between the DR and non-DR groups at the 1-year post-BMS mark. The overall DR rate was 49.7%, with subgroup rates of 58.8% for RYGB and 46.7% for SG. Additionally, the DR group exhibited significantly different profiles in hyperlipidemia, HbA1c levels, diabetes duration and insulin requirement compared to non-DR patients (all P<0.05). Based on the multivariate results, we developed a clinically applicable nomogram (Fig. 2) to predict the 1-year probability of DR following BMS in severely obese T2DM populations. The nomogram assigns weighted points (scale 0.1 to 0.7) to each predictive factor, where higher total scores indicate a greater likelihood of DR. Clinicians can sum individual variable scores to obtain total points and directly read the corresponding DR probability from the nomogram’s lower axis.
Evaluation and validation of the nomogram
The model’s discriminative ability was assessed by calculating the AUC and ROC curves. The training cohort exhibited an AUC of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.75) (Fig. 3A), while the validation cohort demonstrated an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.77) (Fig. 3B), indicating robust estimation accuracy. Calibration curves were utilized to further validate the model’s fit. Hosmer-Lemeshow tests indicated no statistically significant deviations between the model-predicted probabilities and ideal curves in both the training (P=0.649) and validation cohorts (P=0.173) (Fig. 3C and D), demonstrating excellent goodness-of-fit. The close alignment of the calibration curves with the 45° reference line further confirmed the prediction accuracy. DCA illustrated substantial clinical utility of the model at high-risk threshold intervals (Fig. 3E and F), underscoring its clinical relevance. This nomogram integrates strong discrimination, precise calibration, and actionable clinical value for postoperative diabetes management.
Obesity and T2DM are intricately linked through their pathogenesis and epigenetic factors, prompting an increasing number of studies to focus on the joint diagnosis and treatment of these conditions as metabolic diseases [26,27]. A nationwide survey in China revealed that the prevalence of T2DM significantly escalates with BMI, demonstrating a positive correlation between BMI and T2DM (hazard ratio=1.50; 95% CI, 1.10 to 2.02; P=0.01) [5,8]. Our study indicated that among individuals with severe obesity (BMI ≥40 kg/m2) undergoing BMS, the prevalence of T2DM reached 23%, aligning with previous research trends [28,29]. Furthermore, T2DM patients with severe obesity exhibited significantly higher WC and waist-to-hip ratios compared to their non-T2DM counterparts. Each 10 cm increase in WC or a 0.1 increase in waist-to-hip ratio corresponded to a 60% heightened risk of T2DM [30]. This phenomenon can be attributed to excessive visceral fat accumulation, which leads to an increased release of free fatty acids (FFA) that impair insulin signaling pathways and disrupt liver glucose-lipid metabolism, ultimately resulting in insulin resistance. Additionally, our data suggest that individuals with T2DM and severe obesity are at a greater risk for complications such as hypertension, heart disease, fatty liver, sleep apnea syndrome, hyperlipidemia, and acanthosis nigricans, with these differences being statistically significant. These pathological characteristics are essentially part of a systemic metabolic disorder caused by insulin resistance and fat deposition, including lipotoxicity, glucotoxicity, and chronic inflammation. The manifestation of these conditions involves complex interactions, including adipose tissue dysfunction, endocrine hormone imbalances, and immune system activation [26,31,32].
To further elucidate the risk factors for T2DM in severely obese individuals, we conducted univariate and multivariate regression analyses. These analyses revealed that family history of diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, HbA1c, FPG, and TG are independent risk factors for T2DM. Previous studies have indicated that T2DM has a genetic predisposition, with individuals possessing family history of diabetes being up to 2.4 times more likely to develop the condition [33,34]. In our study, the OR was 5.17, which may be attributed to further disturbances in glucose and lipid metabolism within the severely obese population. Hypertension is widely acknowledged as a major risk factor for T2DM, and a significant positive correlation exists between obesity and hypertension. Inflammatory adipokines and insulin resistance induced by obesity contribute to systemic vascular inflammation, impairing vascular relaxation and increasing vascular stiffness, ultimately leading to the development of hypertension [35,36]. Additionally, elevated TG and hyperlipidemia are particularly prevalent in severely obese populations with T2DM. In the severely obese state, the accumulation of adipocytes surpasses the storage threshold, resulting in a substantial release of TG into the bloodstream, which triggers hyperlipidemia. Concurrently, FFAs accumulate in muscle and liver tissues, causing lipotoxicity, further exacerbating insulin resistance, and damaging these tissues [37]. HbA1c and FPG are critical indicators reflecting long-term and immediate blood glucose levels, playing an essential role in the diagnosis, evaluation, and monitoring of T2DM treatment [9].
Severely obese individuals often face significant challenges in achieving ideal weight loss through traditional treatments, which has led to the increasing preference for BMS as a therapeutic option. Currently, multicenter studies examining the postoperative DR outcomes of BMS in patients with severe obesity and T2DM are relatively limited, with the majority of existing reports focusing on Western countries. We further explored T2DM patients within severely obese populations and included variables related to diabetes and BMS in both univariate and multivariate regression analyses. The results indicated that HbA1c, diabetes duration, surgical procedure, hyperlipidemia, and insulin requirement were identified as independent predictors of DR. To validate our findings, we developed a corresponding nomogram and evaluated the model’s stability and accuracy using the AUC and calibration curves derived from both training and validation cohorts. Our analysis demonstrated that our prediction model exhibits favorable predictive capability.
BMS, by modifying the anatomy and function of the gastrointestinal tract, activates various metabolic mechanisms that influence glucose metabolism, insulin sensitivity, and hepatic glucose production. It is recognized as one of the most effective strategies for treating obesity and T2DM [38]. Among the various surgical options, RYGB and SG are currently the most commonly employed procedures. While some controlled studies have shown no significant difference in DR rates between RYGB and SG [39,40], our study revealed that the DR rate in the RYGB group was 1.89 times higher than that in the SG group, with remission rates of 58.8% and 46.7%, respectively. The superior efficacy of RYGB over SG in terms of both DR and weight loss has been supported by several studies [38,41,42]. Furthermore, additional research indicates that the likelihood of T2DM recurrence after SG is 5.5 times higher than that after RYGB [41]. This discrepancy may be attributed to the mechanisms by which RYGB addresses severe obesity in conjunction with T2DM. RYGB reduces gastric capacity and alters intestinal nutrient absorption pathways, thereby promoting the rapid secretion of gut hormones such as glucagon-like peptide-1 and gastric inhibitory polypeptide, which enhance insulin sensitivity [38]. Based on these findings, RYGB should be considered the preferred surgical option for severely obese populations with T2DM, as recommended by current guidelines [11]. Additionally, particularly in the context of severe obesity combined with T2DM, the cost-effectiveness model for RYGB demonstrates a higher return on investment [43]. Studies have identified HbA1c, diabetes duration, and preoperative insulin requirement as independent predictors of DR, with these factors being closely related to β-cell function. Specifically, diabetes duration is negatively correlated with DR, as chronic insulin resistance leads to prolonged exposure of pancreatic β-cells to glucotoxicity and lipotoxicity, impairing their functionality [44-46]. Similarly, hyperlipidemia also affects insulin secretion from β-cells, leading to insulin resistance, reduced insulin sensitivity, and exacerbated inflammatory responses, all of which play crucial roles in the presence and remission of diabetes [47]. Therefore, for patients with these risk factors, postoperative management should include enhanced blood glucose monitoring and, when necessary, medication or insulin therapy.
Several prediction models have been developed to assess the risk of DR after BMS. Among these, the most commonly utilized models include type 2 diabetes remission (DiaREM), Advanced-DiaRem (AdDiaREM), and the age, body mass index, C-peptide level, and duration of T2D (ABCD). The DiaREM model was constructed using four preoperative variables selected from a total of 259 clinical variables: age, HbA1c levels, type of antidiabetic medication, and insulin requirement [12]. The AdDiaREM model expands upon the DiaREM by incorporating two additional variables—diabetes duration and antihypertensive medication use—while assigning different weights to each variable to enhance the accuracy of DR predictions post-BMS [13]. However, due to physiological differences between Asian and Western populations, the applicability of these models to Asian populations is somewhat limited. The ABCD model, which is based on age, BMI, C-peptide levels, and diabetes duration, has primarily been applied in research involving populations with lower BMI [48]. Additionally, all of the aforementioned models were developed for single-surgery types. A recently developed predictive model, the age, BMI, insulin use, duration (ABID) scoring system, has been designed to assess the likelihood of T2DM remission following metabolic surgery, specifically in Asian patients with a BMI <32.5 kg/m². This study demonstrates that age, BMI, insulin use, and duration of T2DM emerge as the key predictive factors for remission. However, the model’s applicability is currently confined to individuals with mild obesity [49]. In response to these limitations, the present study incorporated two types of BMS and constructed a DR prediction model specifically tailored for severely obese Asian populations.
This study presents several limitations. Firstly, it only conducted internal validation and did not include external validation, which may result in overfitting of the model and compromise its generalizability across diverse populations. Secondly, as a retrospective study, it lacks data on important factors such as the type of diabetes medication and the severity of diabetes, rendering it vulnerable to selection bias and recall bias. Consequently, future research should explore the following avenues for expansion: first, incorporating additional potential confounders, to enhance the accuracy of the prediction model; second, we aim to conduct prospective studies and engage in international multicenter collaborations to validate the model’s universality and stability. Additionally, future multicenter studies with extended follow-up (>5 years) are warranted to evaluate long-term sustainability and recurrence rates, as well as to include a separate analysis or subgroup model for individuals with lower BMI.
In conclusion, this study analyzed data from 51 independent variables across 128 weight loss centers in China to identify the risk factors for the presence of diabetes in severely obese individuals and to establish a predictive model for DR following BMS in individuals with severe obesity and pre-existing diabetes. After internal validation, the developed nomogram exhibited exceptional accuracy and reliability. This research provides valuable insights for clinicians, and offers a precise prognostic assessment tool that serves as an important reference for future clinical practice.
Supplementary materials related to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2025.0337.
Supplementary Table 1.
Characteristic and group information of diabetic patients
dmj-2025-0337-Supplementary-Table-1.pdf
Supplementary Table 2.
Patient characteristics of diabetes remission after surgery
dmj-2025-0337-Supplementary-Table-2.pdf

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

Conception or design: Z.W., Y.L., D.W.

Acquisition, analysis, or interpretation of data: all authors.

Drafting the work or revising: Z.W., Y.L., D.W., C.W.

Final approval of the manuscript: all authors.

FUNDING

This study was funded by the Science and Technology Projects in Guangzhou (funding no. 202201020063) and the flagship specialty construction project-General surgery of The First Aff iliated Hospital of Jinan University (funding no. 711003).

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

None

Fig. 1.
Workflow of the study design. T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; COMSD, China Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Database; BMI, body mass index; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; DCA, decision curve analysis.
dmj-2025-0337f1.jpg
Fig. 2.
Nomogram of predicted probability of diabetes remission after bariatric surgery. RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin.
dmj-2025-0337f2.jpg
Fig. 3.
Prediction model performance. The discrimination between the training cohort (A) and the validation cohort (B) was shown by the receiver operating characteristic curves. The calibration curves described the agreement between the predicted probabilities and the observed results based on the training (C) and the validation cohorts (D). The clinical benefits of the training cohort (E) and validation cohort (F) were proven using the decision curve analysis curve. AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval.
dmj-2025-0337f3.jpg
dmj-2025-0337f4.jpg
Table 1.
Characteristics of severe obesity population
Characteristic Severe obesity
P value
Total Non-T2DM T2DM
No. of cases 3,670 2,649 (72.2) 1,021 (27.8)
Age, yr 29 (24–35) 29 (24–35) 29 (24–34) 0.244
Sex 0.541
 Female 2,229 (60.7) 1,617 (61.0) 612 (60.0)
 Male 1,441 (39.3) 1,032 (39.0) 409 (40.0)
Height, cm 167 (161–174) 167 (161–174) 168 (161–175) 0.511
Weight, kg 126 (114–142) 127 (114–142) 125 (114–142) 0.505
BMI, kg/m2 44.5 (41.9–48.6) 44.6 (42.0–48.7) 44.0 (41.7–48.5) 0.060
WC, cm 130 (122–140) 130 (122–139) 131 (122–141) 0.006
HC, cm 127 (120–135) 127 (120–135) 127 (120–135) 0.898
Waist-to-hip 1.03 (0.97–1.08) 1.03 (0.97–1.08) 1.03 (0.97–1.09) 0.009
Smoking 637 (17.4) 439 (16.6) 198 (19.4) 0.043
Drinking 512 (14.0) 361 (13.6) 151 (14.8) 0.363
Family history of obesity 1,082 (29.5) 766 (28.9) 316 (31.0) 0.226
Family history of diabetes 642 (17.5) 264 (10.0) 378 (37.0) <0.001
Surgical strategy <0.001
 SG 3,021 (82.3) 2,250 (84.9) 771 (75.5)
 RYGB 649 (17.7) 399 (15.1) 250 (24.5)
Hair loss 156 (4.3) 105 (4.0) 51 (5.0) 0.165
Acid reflux 755 (20.6) 536 (20.2) 219 (21.5) 0.414
Sleep snoring 2,562 (69.8) 1,836 (69.3) 726 (71.1) 0.288
Helicobacter pylori infection 397 (10.8) 277 (10.5) 120 (11.8) 0.257
Hypertension 1,940 (52.9) 1,280 (48.3) 660 (64.6) <0.001
Heart disease 55 (1.5) 31 (1.2) 24 (2.4) 0.008
Fatty liver 3,293 (89.7) 2,353 (88.8) 940 (92.1) 0.004
Sleep apnea syndrome 1,987 (54.1) 1,391 (52.5) 596 (58.4) 0.001
Thyroid disease 1,773 (48.3) 1,256 (47.4) 517 (50.6) 0.080
Hyperlipidemia 2,013 (54.9) 1,309 (49.4) 704 (69.0) <0.001
Hyperuricemia 2,940 (80.1) 2,104 (79.4) 836 (81.9) 0.095
Gout 232 (6.3) 162 (6.1) 70 (6.9) 0.409
Arthritis 386 (10.5) 268 (10.1) 118 (11.6) 0.202
Acanthosis nigricans 869 (23.7) 570 (21.5) 299 (29.3) <0.001
HbA1c, % 6.0 (5.5–6.7) 5.7 (5.4–6.2) 7.1 (6.4–8.5) <0.001
FPG, mmol/L 5.82 (5.11–7.11) 5.49 (4.94–6.21) 7.41 (6.30–9.63) <0.001
FPI, mIU/L 25 (18–37) 24 (18–37) 27 (18–40) 0.009
FCP, ng/mL 3.96 (2.91–5.24) 3.95 (2.91–5.21) 3.96 (2.95–5.27) 0.513
Cholesterol, mmol/L 5.00 (4.40–5.70) 5.03 (4.40–5.70) 5.00 (4.39–5.70) 0.202
Triglycerides, mmol/L 1.97 (1.44–2.74) 1.76 (1.30–2.49) 2.42 (1.93–3.17) <0.001
HDL, mmol/L 1.07 (0.92–1.24) 1.07 (0.92–1.24) 1.07 (0.92–1.25) 0.949
LDL, mmol/L 3.07 (2.58–3.62) 3.06 (2.58–3.61) 3.08 (2.58–3.68) 0.630
ALT, U/L 44 (26–75) 43 (26–75) 45 (28–75) 0.067
AST, U/L 28 (20–43) 28 (20–43) 29 (20–44) 0.106
Creatinine, μmol/L 59 (51–70) 59 (50–69) 60 (52–70) 0.168
Albumin, g/L 42.6 (40.0–45.0) 42.6 (40.0–45.0) 42.6 (40.1–45.0) 0.743
FT3, pmol/L 4.94 (4.02–5.65) 4.98 (4.08–5.65) 4.84 (3.88–5.64) 0.104
FT4, pmol/L 12.3 (10.4–14.6) 12.3 (10.5–14.6) 12.2 (10.1–14.4) 0.191
Uric acid, μmol/L 446 (376–532) 445 (376–532) 447 (379–532) 0.438

Values are presented as number (%) or median (interquartile range). Kruskal–Wallis test is represented by median (interquartile range).

T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; HC, hip circumference; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; FPI, fasting plasma insulin; FCP, fasting C-peptide; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; FT3, free triiodothyronine; FT4, free thyroxine.

Table 2.
Logistic regression analysis of factors associated with presence of diabetes in a severe obesity population
Characteristic Univariable
Multivariable
OR (95% CI) P value OR (95% CI) P value
Age, yr 0.99 (0.98–1.00) 0.140
Sex
 Female Reference
 Male 1.05 (0.90–1.21) 0.541
Height, cm 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.697
Weight, kg 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.378
BMI, kg/m2 0.99 (0.98–1.00) 0.175
WC, cm 1.01 (1.00–1.01) 0.013 0.99 (0.99–1.00) 0.097
HC, cm 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.991
Waist-to-hip 5.17 (2.16–12.38) <0.001 1.33 (0.36–4.92) 0.665
Smoking
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.21 (1.01–1.46) 0.043 0.94 (0.74–1.19) 0.600
Drinking
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.10 (0.90–1.35) 0.363
Family history of obesity
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.10 (0.94–1.29) 0.226
Family history of diabetes
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 5.31 (4.44–6.36) <0.001 5.17 (4.17–6.42) <0.001
Surgical strategy
 SG Reference
 RYGB 1.82 (1.54–2.17) <0.001 1.23 (0.97–1.59) 0.083
Hair loss
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.27 (0.90–1.79) 0.166
Acid reflux
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.08 (0.90–1.28) 0.414
Sleep snoring
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.09 (0.93–1.28) 0.288
Helicobacter pylori infection
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.14 (0.91–1.43) 0.257
Hypertension
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.96 (1.68–2.27) <0.001 1.89 (1.56–2.29) <0.001
Heart disease
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 2.03 (1.19–3.48) 0.010 1.10 (0.55–2.20) 0.793
Fatty liver
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.46 (1.13–1.89) 0.004 1.14 (0.82–1.59) 0.428
Sleep apnea syndrome
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.27 (1.10–1.47) 0.001 1.18 (0.98–1.43) 0.086
Thyroid disease
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.14 (0.98–1.31) 0.080
Hyperlipidemia
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 2.27 (1.95–2.65) <0.001 1.54 (1.26–1.87) <0.001
Hyperuricemia
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.17 (0.97–1.41) 0.095
Gout
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.13 (0.85–1.51) 0.409
Arthritis
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.16 (0.92–1.46) 0.203
Acanthosis nigricans
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.51 (1.28–1.78) <0.001 1.13 (0.91–1.40) 0.251
HbA1c, % 2.50 (2.31–2.70) <0.001 1.89 (1.73–2.07) <0.001
FPG, mmol/L 1.60 (1.53–1.67) <0.001 1.23 (1.17–1.30) <0.001
FPI, mIU/L 1.00 (1.00–1.01) <0.001 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.196
FCP, ng/mL 1.00 (0.98–1.03) 0.738
Cholesterol, mmol/L 0.98 (0.94–1.03) 0.411
Triglycerides, mmol/L 1.17 (1.12–1.22) <0.001 1.13 (1.09–1.18) <0.001
HDL, mmol/L 1.04 (0.82–1.31) 0.741
LDL, mmol/L 1.03 (0.95–1.12) 0.471
ALT, U/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.399
AST, U/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.426
Creatinine, μmol/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.835
Albumin, g/L 1.01 (1.01–1.01) 0.041 1.00 (1.00–1.01) 0.099
FT3, pmol/L 0.99 (0.97–1.02) 0.696
FT4, pmol/L 0.99 (0.98–1.00) 0.058
Uric acid, μmol/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.451

OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; HC, hip circumference; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; FPI, fasting plasma insulin; FCP, fasting C-peptide; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; FT3, free triiodothyronine; FT4, free thyroxine.

Table 3.
Variables based on logistic regression analysis (training cohort)
Characteristic Univariable
Multivariable
OR (95% CI) P value OR (95% CI) P value
Age, yr 1.01 (0.99–1.03) 0.470
Sex
 Female Reference
 Male 1.13 (0.84–1.53) 0.416
Height, cm 1.00 (0.98–1.02) 0.989
Weight, kg 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.795
BMI, kg/m2 1.00 (0.98–1.03) 0.729
WC, cm 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.614
HC, cm 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.768
Waist-to-hip 0.87 (0.17–4.35) 0.861
Smoking
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.84 (0.58–1.21) 0.341
Drinking
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.20 (0.79–1.81) 0.395
Family history of obesity
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.94 (0.68–1.29) 0.690
Family history of diabetes
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.82 (0.60–1.12) 0.208
Surgical strategy
 SG Reference Reference
 RYGB 1.73 (1.23–2.44) 0.002 1.88 (1.30–2.71) <0.001
Hair loss
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.81 (0.41–1.63) 0.559
Acid reflux
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.14 (0.80–1.65) 0.466
Sleep snoring
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.81 (0.58–1.13) 0.214
Helicobacter pylori infection
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.93 (0.59–1.49) 0.773
Hypertension
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.94 (0.69–1.28) 0.702
Heart disease
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.47 (0.16–1.35) 0.160
Fatty liver
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.08 (0.62–1.90) 0.780
Sleep apnea syndrome
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.82 (0.61–1.11) 0.204
Thyroid disease
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.88 (0.66–1.19) 0.409
Hyperlipidemia
 No/Unknown Reference Reference
 Yes 0.62 (0.45–0.85) 0.003 0.66 (0.47–0.93) 0.016
Hyperuricemia
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.90 (0.62–1.31) 0.589
Gout
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.80 (0.45–1.44) 0.462
Arthritis
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 1.36 (0.87–2.13) 0.183
Acanthosis nigricans
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.95 (0.69–1.31) 0.753
HbA1c, % 0.83 (0.76–0.90) <0.001 0.80 (0.73–0.88) 0.001
FPG, mmol/L 0.96 (0.92–1.00) 0.057
FPI, mIU/L 1.00 (0.99–1.00) 0.299
FCP, ng/mL 1.01 (0.96–1.07) 0.626
Cholesterol, mmol/L 0.91 (0.79–1.05) 0.195
Triglycerides, mmol/L 1.04 (0.97–1.12) 0.287
HDL, mmol/L 0.81 (0.50–1.31) 0.391
LDL, mmol/L 0.92 (0.78–1.08) 0.316
ALT, U/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.737
AST, U/L 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.763
Creatinine, μmol/L 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.530
Albumin, g/L 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.833
FT3, pmol/L 0.98 (0.92–1.05) 0.562
FT4, pmol/L 1.00 (0.98–1.02) 0.739
Uric acid, μmol/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.395
Diabetes duration, yr 0.89 (0.85–0.94) <0.001 0.90 (0.85–0.96) <0.001
Hypoglycemic medication
 No/Unknown Reference
 Yes 0.74 (0.54–1.02) 0.066
Insulin requirement
 No/Unknown Reference Reference
 Yes 0.51 (0.35–0.72) <0.001 0.59 (0.40–0.86) 0.006
HOMA-IR 0.99 (0.98–1.00) 0.092
QUICKI 1,704.25 (5.21–557,250.84) 0.012 0.10 (0.00–82.58) 0.498
LAP 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.354
McAuley index 1.11 (0.95–1.30) 0.200

OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; HC, hip circumference; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; FPI, fasting plasma insulin; FCP, fasting C-peptide; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; FT3, free triiodothyronine; FT4, free thyroxine; HOMA-IR, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance; QUICKI, quantitative insulin sensitivity check index; LAP, lipid accumulation product.

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        Risk Determinants of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with Severe Obesity and Prediction Model for Diabetes Remission after Bariatric Metabolic Surgery
        Diabetes Metab J. 2026;50(2):368-384.   Published online November 25, 2025
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      Risk Determinants of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with Severe Obesity and Prediction Model for Diabetes Remission after Bariatric Metabolic Surgery
      Image Image Image Image
      Fig. 1. Workflow of the study design. T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; COMSD, China Obesity and Metabolic Surgery Database; BMI, body mass index; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; DCA, decision curve analysis.
      Fig. 2. Nomogram of predicted probability of diabetes remission after bariatric surgery. RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin.
      Fig. 3. Prediction model performance. The discrimination between the training cohort (A) and the validation cohort (B) was shown by the receiver operating characteristic curves. The calibration curves described the agreement between the predicted probabilities and the observed results based on the training (C) and the validation cohorts (D). The clinical benefits of the training cohort (E) and validation cohort (F) were proven using the decision curve analysis curve. AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval.
      Graphical abstract
      Risk Determinants of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with Severe Obesity and Prediction Model for Diabetes Remission after Bariatric Metabolic Surgery
      Characteristic Severe obesity
      P value
      Total Non-T2DM T2DM
      No. of cases 3,670 2,649 (72.2) 1,021 (27.8)
      Age, yr 29 (24–35) 29 (24–35) 29 (24–34) 0.244
      Sex 0.541
       Female 2,229 (60.7) 1,617 (61.0) 612 (60.0)
       Male 1,441 (39.3) 1,032 (39.0) 409 (40.0)
      Height, cm 167 (161–174) 167 (161–174) 168 (161–175) 0.511
      Weight, kg 126 (114–142) 127 (114–142) 125 (114–142) 0.505
      BMI, kg/m2 44.5 (41.9–48.6) 44.6 (42.0–48.7) 44.0 (41.7–48.5) 0.060
      WC, cm 130 (122–140) 130 (122–139) 131 (122–141) 0.006
      HC, cm 127 (120–135) 127 (120–135) 127 (120–135) 0.898
      Waist-to-hip 1.03 (0.97–1.08) 1.03 (0.97–1.08) 1.03 (0.97–1.09) 0.009
      Smoking 637 (17.4) 439 (16.6) 198 (19.4) 0.043
      Drinking 512 (14.0) 361 (13.6) 151 (14.8) 0.363
      Family history of obesity 1,082 (29.5) 766 (28.9) 316 (31.0) 0.226
      Family history of diabetes 642 (17.5) 264 (10.0) 378 (37.0) <0.001
      Surgical strategy <0.001
       SG 3,021 (82.3) 2,250 (84.9) 771 (75.5)
       RYGB 649 (17.7) 399 (15.1) 250 (24.5)
      Hair loss 156 (4.3) 105 (4.0) 51 (5.0) 0.165
      Acid reflux 755 (20.6) 536 (20.2) 219 (21.5) 0.414
      Sleep snoring 2,562 (69.8) 1,836 (69.3) 726 (71.1) 0.288
      Helicobacter pylori infection 397 (10.8) 277 (10.5) 120 (11.8) 0.257
      Hypertension 1,940 (52.9) 1,280 (48.3) 660 (64.6) <0.001
      Heart disease 55 (1.5) 31 (1.2) 24 (2.4) 0.008
      Fatty liver 3,293 (89.7) 2,353 (88.8) 940 (92.1) 0.004
      Sleep apnea syndrome 1,987 (54.1) 1,391 (52.5) 596 (58.4) 0.001
      Thyroid disease 1,773 (48.3) 1,256 (47.4) 517 (50.6) 0.080
      Hyperlipidemia 2,013 (54.9) 1,309 (49.4) 704 (69.0) <0.001
      Hyperuricemia 2,940 (80.1) 2,104 (79.4) 836 (81.9) 0.095
      Gout 232 (6.3) 162 (6.1) 70 (6.9) 0.409
      Arthritis 386 (10.5) 268 (10.1) 118 (11.6) 0.202
      Acanthosis nigricans 869 (23.7) 570 (21.5) 299 (29.3) <0.001
      HbA1c, % 6.0 (5.5–6.7) 5.7 (5.4–6.2) 7.1 (6.4–8.5) <0.001
      FPG, mmol/L 5.82 (5.11–7.11) 5.49 (4.94–6.21) 7.41 (6.30–9.63) <0.001
      FPI, mIU/L 25 (18–37) 24 (18–37) 27 (18–40) 0.009
      FCP, ng/mL 3.96 (2.91–5.24) 3.95 (2.91–5.21) 3.96 (2.95–5.27) 0.513
      Cholesterol, mmol/L 5.00 (4.40–5.70) 5.03 (4.40–5.70) 5.00 (4.39–5.70) 0.202
      Triglycerides, mmol/L 1.97 (1.44–2.74) 1.76 (1.30–2.49) 2.42 (1.93–3.17) <0.001
      HDL, mmol/L 1.07 (0.92–1.24) 1.07 (0.92–1.24) 1.07 (0.92–1.25) 0.949
      LDL, mmol/L 3.07 (2.58–3.62) 3.06 (2.58–3.61) 3.08 (2.58–3.68) 0.630
      ALT, U/L 44 (26–75) 43 (26–75) 45 (28–75) 0.067
      AST, U/L 28 (20–43) 28 (20–43) 29 (20–44) 0.106
      Creatinine, μmol/L 59 (51–70) 59 (50–69) 60 (52–70) 0.168
      Albumin, g/L 42.6 (40.0–45.0) 42.6 (40.0–45.0) 42.6 (40.1–45.0) 0.743
      FT3, pmol/L 4.94 (4.02–5.65) 4.98 (4.08–5.65) 4.84 (3.88–5.64) 0.104
      FT4, pmol/L 12.3 (10.4–14.6) 12.3 (10.5–14.6) 12.2 (10.1–14.4) 0.191
      Uric acid, μmol/L 446 (376–532) 445 (376–532) 447 (379–532) 0.438
      Characteristic Univariable
      Multivariable
      OR (95% CI) P value OR (95% CI) P value
      Age, yr 0.99 (0.98–1.00) 0.140
      Sex
       Female Reference
       Male 1.05 (0.90–1.21) 0.541
      Height, cm 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.697
      Weight, kg 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.378
      BMI, kg/m2 0.99 (0.98–1.00) 0.175
      WC, cm 1.01 (1.00–1.01) 0.013 0.99 (0.99–1.00) 0.097
      HC, cm 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.991
      Waist-to-hip 5.17 (2.16–12.38) <0.001 1.33 (0.36–4.92) 0.665
      Smoking
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.21 (1.01–1.46) 0.043 0.94 (0.74–1.19) 0.600
      Drinking
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.10 (0.90–1.35) 0.363
      Family history of obesity
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.10 (0.94–1.29) 0.226
      Family history of diabetes
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 5.31 (4.44–6.36) <0.001 5.17 (4.17–6.42) <0.001
      Surgical strategy
       SG Reference
       RYGB 1.82 (1.54–2.17) <0.001 1.23 (0.97–1.59) 0.083
      Hair loss
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.27 (0.90–1.79) 0.166
      Acid reflux
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.08 (0.90–1.28) 0.414
      Sleep snoring
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.09 (0.93–1.28) 0.288
      Helicobacter pylori infection
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.14 (0.91–1.43) 0.257
      Hypertension
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.96 (1.68–2.27) <0.001 1.89 (1.56–2.29) <0.001
      Heart disease
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 2.03 (1.19–3.48) 0.010 1.10 (0.55–2.20) 0.793
      Fatty liver
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.46 (1.13–1.89) 0.004 1.14 (0.82–1.59) 0.428
      Sleep apnea syndrome
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.27 (1.10–1.47) 0.001 1.18 (0.98–1.43) 0.086
      Thyroid disease
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.14 (0.98–1.31) 0.080
      Hyperlipidemia
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 2.27 (1.95–2.65) <0.001 1.54 (1.26–1.87) <0.001
      Hyperuricemia
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.17 (0.97–1.41) 0.095
      Gout
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.13 (0.85–1.51) 0.409
      Arthritis
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.16 (0.92–1.46) 0.203
      Acanthosis nigricans
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.51 (1.28–1.78) <0.001 1.13 (0.91–1.40) 0.251
      HbA1c, % 2.50 (2.31–2.70) <0.001 1.89 (1.73–2.07) <0.001
      FPG, mmol/L 1.60 (1.53–1.67) <0.001 1.23 (1.17–1.30) <0.001
      FPI, mIU/L 1.00 (1.00–1.01) <0.001 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.196
      FCP, ng/mL 1.00 (0.98–1.03) 0.738
      Cholesterol, mmol/L 0.98 (0.94–1.03) 0.411
      Triglycerides, mmol/L 1.17 (1.12–1.22) <0.001 1.13 (1.09–1.18) <0.001
      HDL, mmol/L 1.04 (0.82–1.31) 0.741
      LDL, mmol/L 1.03 (0.95–1.12) 0.471
      ALT, U/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.399
      AST, U/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.426
      Creatinine, μmol/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.835
      Albumin, g/L 1.01 (1.01–1.01) 0.041 1.00 (1.00–1.01) 0.099
      FT3, pmol/L 0.99 (0.97–1.02) 0.696
      FT4, pmol/L 0.99 (0.98–1.00) 0.058
      Uric acid, μmol/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.451
      Characteristic Univariable
      Multivariable
      OR (95% CI) P value OR (95% CI) P value
      Age, yr 1.01 (0.99–1.03) 0.470
      Sex
       Female Reference
       Male 1.13 (0.84–1.53) 0.416
      Height, cm 1.00 (0.98–1.02) 0.989
      Weight, kg 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.795
      BMI, kg/m2 1.00 (0.98–1.03) 0.729
      WC, cm 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.614
      HC, cm 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.768
      Waist-to-hip 0.87 (0.17–4.35) 0.861
      Smoking
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.84 (0.58–1.21) 0.341
      Drinking
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.20 (0.79–1.81) 0.395
      Family history of obesity
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.94 (0.68–1.29) 0.690
      Family history of diabetes
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.82 (0.60–1.12) 0.208
      Surgical strategy
       SG Reference Reference
       RYGB 1.73 (1.23–2.44) 0.002 1.88 (1.30–2.71) <0.001
      Hair loss
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.81 (0.41–1.63) 0.559
      Acid reflux
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.14 (0.80–1.65) 0.466
      Sleep snoring
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.81 (0.58–1.13) 0.214
      Helicobacter pylori infection
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.93 (0.59–1.49) 0.773
      Hypertension
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.94 (0.69–1.28) 0.702
      Heart disease
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.47 (0.16–1.35) 0.160
      Fatty liver
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.08 (0.62–1.90) 0.780
      Sleep apnea syndrome
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.82 (0.61–1.11) 0.204
      Thyroid disease
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.88 (0.66–1.19) 0.409
      Hyperlipidemia
       No/Unknown Reference Reference
       Yes 0.62 (0.45–0.85) 0.003 0.66 (0.47–0.93) 0.016
      Hyperuricemia
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.90 (0.62–1.31) 0.589
      Gout
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.80 (0.45–1.44) 0.462
      Arthritis
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 1.36 (0.87–2.13) 0.183
      Acanthosis nigricans
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.95 (0.69–1.31) 0.753
      HbA1c, % 0.83 (0.76–0.90) <0.001 0.80 (0.73–0.88) 0.001
      FPG, mmol/L 0.96 (0.92–1.00) 0.057
      FPI, mIU/L 1.00 (0.99–1.00) 0.299
      FCP, ng/mL 1.01 (0.96–1.07) 0.626
      Cholesterol, mmol/L 0.91 (0.79–1.05) 0.195
      Triglycerides, mmol/L 1.04 (0.97–1.12) 0.287
      HDL, mmol/L 0.81 (0.50–1.31) 0.391
      LDL, mmol/L 0.92 (0.78–1.08) 0.316
      ALT, U/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.737
      AST, U/L 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.763
      Creatinine, μmol/L 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.530
      Albumin, g/L 1.00 (0.99–1.01) 0.833
      FT3, pmol/L 0.98 (0.92–1.05) 0.562
      FT4, pmol/L 1.00 (0.98–1.02) 0.739
      Uric acid, μmol/L 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.395
      Diabetes duration, yr 0.89 (0.85–0.94) <0.001 0.90 (0.85–0.96) <0.001
      Hypoglycemic medication
       No/Unknown Reference
       Yes 0.74 (0.54–1.02) 0.066
      Insulin requirement
       No/Unknown Reference Reference
       Yes 0.51 (0.35–0.72) <0.001 0.59 (0.40–0.86) 0.006
      HOMA-IR 0.99 (0.98–1.00) 0.092
      QUICKI 1,704.25 (5.21–557,250.84) 0.012 0.10 (0.00–82.58) 0.498
      LAP 1.00 (1.00–1.00) 0.354
      McAuley index 1.11 (0.95–1.30) 0.200
      Table 1. Characteristics of severe obesity population

      Values are presented as number (%) or median (interquartile range). Kruskal–Wallis test is represented by median (interquartile range).

      T2DM, type 2 diabetes mellitus; BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; HC, hip circumference; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; FPI, fasting plasma insulin; FCP, fasting C-peptide; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; FT3, free triiodothyronine; FT4, free thyroxine.

      Table 2. Logistic regression analysis of factors associated with presence of diabetes in a severe obesity population

      OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; HC, hip circumference; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; FPI, fasting plasma insulin; FCP, fasting C-peptide; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; FT3, free triiodothyronine; FT4, free thyroxine.

      Table 3. Variables based on logistic regression analysis (training cohort)

      OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; WC, waist circumference; HC, hip circumference; SG, sleeve gastrectomy; RYGB, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass; HbA1c, glycosylated hemoglobin; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; FPI, fasting plasma insulin; FCP, fasting C-peptide; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; ALT, alanine aminotransferase; AST, aspartate aminotransferase; FT3, free triiodothyronine; FT4, free thyroxine; HOMA-IR, homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance; QUICKI, quantitative insulin sensitivity check index; LAP, lipid accumulation product.

      Wu Z, Li Y, Wang D, Wu B, Yuan K, Liu Y, Zhu H, Chen S, Yang W, Hu R, Wang C. Risk Determinants of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus with Severe Obesity and Prediction Model for Diabetes Remission after Bariatric Metabolic Surgery. Diabetes Metab J. 2026;50(2):368-384.
      Received: Apr 15, 2025; Accepted: Sep 08, 2025
      DOI: https://doi.org/10.4093/dmj.2025.0337.

      Diabetes Metab J : Diabetes & Metabolism Journal
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