Background Cumulative evidence consistently shows that anthropometric and body composition measurements are strongly linked to the risk of incident diabetes, typically based on baseline measurements. This study aims to assess whether repeated measurements enhance the prediction of diabetes risk beyond baseline assessments alone.
Methods We utilized data from a 16-year population-based follow-up cohort within the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, comprising 6,030 individuals aged 40 to 69 years at baseline. We included eight indices: a body shape index (ABSI), body adiposity index (BAI), waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), weight-adjusted skeletal muscle index (SMI), percent body fat, and fat-to-muscle ratio. The effect of these measurements for incident diabetes was estimated using Harrell’s C-indexes and hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals, employing time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models.
Results Over the 16-year follow-up, 939 new diabetes cases were identified (cumulative incidence, 15.6%). The median number of indicator measurements per participant was eight. The basic model, including 10 features (sex, age, education levels, physical activity, alcohol intake, current smoking, total energy intake, dietary diversity score, and log-transformed C-reactive protein levels, and quartiles of unweighted genetic risk score at baseline), yielded a Harrell’s C-index of 0.610. The highest C-index in repeated measurements was for WC (0.668) across the general population, weight-adjusted SMI in men, and WHR in women. However, except for ABSI and BAI, the diabetes predictive power of the other indicators was comparable. Additionally, repeated measurements of WC, BMI, and WHR in women were found to contribute to improved discrimination compared to baseline measurements, but not in men.
Conclusion Utilizing repeated measurements of general and central adiposity to predict diabetes may be helpful in predicting hidden risks, especially in women.
Background Using long-term data from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, we defined poor glycemic control and investigated possible risk factors, including variants related to type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In addition, we evaluated interaction effects among risk factors for poor glycemic control.
Methods Among 436 subjects with newly diagnosed diabetes, poor glycemic control was defined based on glycosylated hemoglobin trajectory patterns by group-based trajectory modeling. For the variants related to T2DM, genetic risk scores (GRSs) were calculated and divided into quartiles. Risk factors for poor glycemic control were assessed using a logistic regression model.
Results Of the subjects, 43% were in the poor-glycemic-control group. Body mass index (BMI) and triglyceride (TG) were associated with poor glycemic control. The risk for poor glycemic control increased by 11.0% per 1 kg/m2 increase in BMI and by 3.0% per 10 mg/dL increase in TG. The risk for GRS with poor glycemic control was sex-dependent (Pinteraction=0.07), and a relationship by GRS quartiles was found in females but not in males. Moreover, the interaction effect was found to be significant on both additive and multiplicative scales. The interaction effect was evident in the variants of cyclin-dependent kinase 5 regulatory subunit-associated protein 1-like (CDKAL1).
Conclusion Females with risk alleles of variants in CDKAL1 associated with T2DM had a higher risk for poor glycemic control than males.
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