Globally, the number of people with diabetes mellitus has quadrupled in the past three decades, and approximately one in 11 adults worldwide have diabetes mellitus. Since both microvascular and macrovascular diseases in patients with diabetes predispose them to a lower quality of life as well as higher rates of mortality, managing blood glucose levels is of clinical relevance in diabetes care. Many classes of antihyperglycemic drugs are currently approved to treat hyperglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, with several new drugs having been developed during the last decade. Diabetes-related complications have been reduced substantially worldwide. Prioritization of therapeutic agents varies according to national guidelines. However, since the characteristics of participants in clinical trials differ from patients in actual clinical practice, it is difficult to apply the results of such trials to clinical practice. Machine learning approaches became highly topical issues in medicine along with rapid technological innovations in the fields of information and communication in the 1990s. However, adopting these technologies to support decision-making regarding drug treatment strategies for diabetes care has been slow. This review summarizes data from recent studies on the choice of drugs for type 2 diabetes mellitus focusing on machine learning approaches.
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Background There are many models for predicting diabetes mellitus (DM), but their clinical implication remains vague. Therefore, we aimed to create various DM prediction models using easily accessible health screening test parameters.
Methods Two sets of variables were used to develop eight DM prediction models. One set comprised 62 easily accessible examination results of commonly used variables from a tertiary university hospital. The second set comprised 27 of the 62 variables included in the national routine health checkups. Gradient boosting and random forest algorithms were used to develop the models. Internal validation was performed using the stratified 10-fold cross-validation method.
Results The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) for the 62-variable DM model making 12-month predictions for subjects without diabetes was the largest (0.928) among those of the eight DM prediction models. The ROC-AUC dropped by more than 0.04 when training with the simplified 27-variable set but still showed fairly good performance with ROC-AUCs between 0.842 and 0.880. The accuracy was up to 11.5% higher (from 0.807 to 0.714) when fasting glucose was included.
Conclusion We created easily applicable diabetes prediction models that deliver good performance using parameters commonly assessed during tertiary university hospital and national routine health checkups. We plan to perform prospective external validation, hoping that the developed DM prediction models will be widely used in clinical practice.
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